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Estimated burden of early and late AMD in portugal in 2025 and 2050: the coimbra eye study

Session Details

Session Title: AMD II

Session Date/Time: Friday 18/09/2015 | 14:30-16:00

Paper Time: 15:26

Venue: Calliope.

First Author: : J.Marques PORTUGAL

Co Author(s): :    M. Cachulo   M. Costa   S. Nunes   C. Lobo   R. Silva  

Abstract Details

PURPOSE:To estimate the age- and gender-specific burden of early and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Portugal in 2025 and 2050.


Department of Ophthalmology, Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra (CHUC), Coimbra, Portugal. Association for Innovation and Biomedical Research on Light and Image (AIBILI), Coimbra, Portugal. Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra (FMUC), Coimbra, Portugal.


The population aged ≥55 years old from two primary healthcare units of the central region of Portugal was recruited between August 2009 and October 2013 to engage in a cross-sectional population-based study (Coimbra Eye Study). Responders underwent a complete ophthalmological examination and digital color fundus photography (CFP). Early and late AMD were defined according to the international classification and grading system for AMD and the adopted staging system was the same as used in the Rotterdam study. Of the 8,430 eligible subjects, 6,025 underwent study procedures and 5,996 were included in the analysis (the remaining 29 were excluded due to media opacities preventing grading of the CFP). The overall adjusted prevalence of early (stages 2 and 3) and late (stage 4) AMD was 11.31% and 1.16%, respectively. Neovascular (NV) and geographic atrophic (GA) accounted for 0.55% and 0.44% of cases, respectively. Assuming these prevalences we calculated the estimated age- and gender-adjusted number of affected individuals with early and late AMD for the Portuguese population in 2025 and 2050, based on the United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects for Portugal. An incidence study is currently being conducted in order to calculate the projected prevalence of the disease in Portugal.


According to the UN, the Portuguese population will be 10,514,000 (51.38% females) and 9,843,000 (51.25% females) in 2025 and 2050, respectively. Adults aged ≥55 years old will comprise 37.4% (n=3,936,000) of the total Portuguese population in 2025 and this number will rise to 47.0% (n=4,627,000) in 2050. The estimated number of affected individuals aged 55 or older with any form of AMD (stages 2-4) is 490,580 in 2025 and 576,450 in 2050, thus constituting a 17.50% increase in this timeframe. Early AMD will affect 247,465 women and 197,735 men in 2025 and 285,907 women and 237,282 men in 2050. Advanced forms (stage 4) will account for 45,411 cases in 2025 (60.91% women) and 53,262 in 2050 (60.00% women).


This population-based study provides substantial epidemiologic data from a large Portuguese cohort. As birthrates drop and life expectancy rises, the social burden of age-related conditions increases. Our estimates indicate that the number of affected individuals with any form of AMD will rise substantially in the years to come. We aim to be able to calculate a projected prevalence of the disease as soon as the incidence of AMD in our cohort is computed.

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